2050's Green Hydrogen Hotspots Revealed in Landmark Climate Fuel Study

A new study by the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) has mapped out where climate-friendly fuels could be produced most cost-effectively by 2050. Researchers analysed 21 different technologies across the globe, highlighting key regions where green hydrogen and other low-carbon fuels may thrive. The findings suggest no single solution will dominate, as costs depend heavily on local conditions and resources.

The study focused on production costs for fuels like green hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and turquoise hydrogen. Currently, blue and turquoise hydrogen—derived from natural gas—remain the cheapest options in gas-rich areas such as the U.S., the Middle East, and Central Asia. But by 2050, green hydrogen produced from renewables is expected to become far more competitive in countries with abundant wind or solar power.

Spain, Canada, and Australia emerged as top candidates for low-cost green hydrogen production. Spain's strong solar resources, Canada's wind potential, and Australia's mix of renewables give them a clear advantage. The North Sea region and North Africa also ranked highly, thanks to their wind energy capacity and potential for pipeline exports. The research stressed that local factors will shape success. Cheap renewable electricity, existing infrastructure, and financing costs all play a role. For example, a well-developed European pipeline network could slash transport expenses, making domestically produced fuels more affordable. Without this, some regions may struggle to compete despite having renewable potential. Climate-friendly fuels are seen as vital for cutting emissions in tough-to-decarbonise sectors. Aviation, shipping, and heavy industry rely on energy-dense fuels that batteries or direct electrification cannot easily replace. The study aims to guide policymakers and investors toward the most promising technologies and locations.

The PSI report concludes that no single technology or region will lead the shift to climate-friendly fuels. Instead, success will depend on matching the right production method with local strengths—whether solar, wind, gas reserves, or infrastructure. By 2050, countries like Spain, Canada, and Australia could become major green hydrogen hubs, while gas-rich areas may continue to favour blue or turquoise hydrogen. The findings provide a roadmap for where investments could yield the greatest cost reductions and climate benefits.