Russia's 2026 labour market overhaul targets productivity amid record-low unemployment

Russia’s labour market is set for major change by 2026. The country currently faces record-low unemployment at 2.2%, but productivity remains a key challenge for long-term growth. Experts warn of a potential labour shortfall of half a million workers by 2032 if current trends continue. The unemployment rate in Russia hit a historic low of 2.2% in 2025. Despite this, sustainable economic growth depends entirely on improving labour productivity. Without significant gains, the country risks a deficit of 500,000 workers within the next decade.

Artificial intelligence is not expected to cut jobs but will reshape roles across industries. In sectors relying on manual work, robotics will play the main role in addressing labour shortages, working alongside AI tools. Generative AI adoption shows the most promise in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Sevastopol, and regions like Samara, Tomsk, and Novosibirsk.

Strategies to boost productivity include removing obstacles for high-performing businesses and creating a fairer competitive environment. Such reforms could potentially double output. Adopting GenAI, robotics, and remote work may raise labour productivity by 21-33% by 2032. Another approach involves reallocating resources following India’s manufacturing model, which could increase output by 48% without adding new workers. By 2026, Russia’s labour market will look fundamentally different. Policies and technologies aimed at productivity growth are critical to avoiding future shortages. The combined effect of AI, robotics, and better business conditions could secure long-term economic stability.