Meta's new Arena app bets on prediction markets without real money

Meta is developing a new standalone app called Arena, designed for prediction markets. The project is led by CEO Mark Zuckerberg, aiming to tap into a growing trend of betting on real-world outcomes. The app will compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which already allow users to wager on events such as sports or politics. Arena will operate separately from Meta’s existing social media apps. It will use a points-based system at launch, avoiding the regulatory challenges tied to real-money betting. This approach mirrors the success of competitors, which have demonstrated strong demand for prediction markets.

The initiative revives Meta’s earlier attempt with Forecast, a similar app that failed in 2020. Since then, prediction markets have gained wider acceptance, prompting Zuckerberg to try again. The company’s vast user base of 3.56 billion daily users across its platforms will be key to driving growth for Arena.

Meta has struggled in the past with standalone apps, including those developed by its New Product Experimentation team in 2019. Discoverability and user adoption remain major hurdles, even for a company of Meta’s scale. Arena represents Meta’s latest effort to enter the prediction markets space. By avoiding real-money wagering initially, the app sidesteps some legal barriers. Its success will depend on whether Meta can overcome past challenges in app adoption and leverage its massive user base.