ifo Institute: Population shrinks more than expected - Germany's population to plummet 10% by 2070 as ageing crisis deepens

Germany's population is set to shrink far more sharply than previously expected. A new study by the Ifo Institute predicts a 10% decline by 2070, far exceeding earlier estimates of just 1%. Researchers now warn that rapid ageing and falling birth rates will reshape the country's future—especially in healthcare and elder care.

The latest projections rely on updated 2022 census data, which placed Germany's population at 81.9 million—lower than earlier figures. Over time, forecasts have grown increasingly bleak. In 2009, the 12th projection estimated 79 million people by 2030, but the 2025 outlook now expects only 73–75 million by 2060.

Revised assumptions explain the shift. Birth rates have fallen to 1.35 children per woman in 2024, lower than past predictions. Immigration, once expected to offset losses, weakened significantly in 2025, further accelerating the decline.

The study also highlights stark regional differences. Eastern German states face the steepest drops, while city-states like Berlin or Hamburg may still see growth by 2070. Ifo Institute director Joachim Ragnitz stressed that policymakers must now account for these trends in long-term planning.

The findings point to a smaller, older Germany by mid-century. With fewer working-age residents and more elderly dependents, pressure on healthcare and pension systems will rise. Authorities must now adjust policies to address the demographic shift—particularly in regions hit hardest by the decline.