Massive coronal holes fuel a 60% surge in geomagnetic storms since 2025

The Sun's activity has shifted in recent years, bringing a sharp rise in geomagnetic storms. Since early 2025, vast coronal holes—one stretching nearly a million kilometres—have dominated its surface. This change has already triggered a 60% increase in geomagnetic storms that year, with further rises expected in 2026.

The surge began in the first months of 2025, as the Sun's outer layer became occupied by large coronal holes. These dark, cooler regions release high-speed solar wind, which interacts with Earth's magnetic field and intensifies storm activity. By the end of that year, recorded geomagnetic disturbances had jumped by 60%.

Current models suggest the upward trend will persist until around 2028. Researchers anticipate even higher storm counts in 2026, surpassing the previous year's totals. While exact forecasts for 2027 and 2028 remain unclear, studies focus on related effects, such as changes in atmospheric density rather than precise storm numbers.

After 2028, solar activity is expected to decline rapidly. A solar minimum—the period of lowest activity in the Sun's roughly 11-year cycle—is projected for late 2029 or early 2030. So far, no data indicates a slowdown in the current storm trend before then.

The ongoing expansion of coronal holes has already reshaped space weather patterns. With no signs of the trend reversing, geomagnetic storm activity is likely to remain elevated for several more years. The eventual decline after 2028 will mark a shift toward quieter solar conditions by the decade's end.