Next-Gen Telescopes Could Unveil 24 Dying Stars Annually Before Supernovae

A new study suggests that upcoming space missions could revolutionise the detection of stars before they explode as supernovae. Researchers predict that Euclid and the Chinese Space Station Telescope (CSST) will spot between 13 and 24 progenitor stars each year—a tenfold increase over current rates. This breakthrough may help solve long-standing mysteries about the final stages of massive star evolution.

The research, published in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (2024), was led by a team including Y. Xu, A. Halkola, and other international astronomers. Their paper, Progenitor detection with next-generation weak lensing surveys, examines how Euclid and CSST could transform the search for red supergiant (RSG) progenitors.

The optical and near-infrared filters on both telescopes are particularly effective at identifying these stars. By analysing data across 11 filters, scientists can simultaneously determine a star’s mass and the optical depth of surrounding dust—assuming a fixed dust temperature. This method reduces uncertainty, as dust temperature itself has little impact on the observed spectral energy distribution within these filters. Currently, astronomers detect only about one progenitor star per year. The study forecasts that Euclid and CSST could raise this number to roughly 24 annually. Such a leap would provide a far larger sample for analysis, aiding efforts to understand the 'RSG problem'—the discrepancy between predicted and observed properties of massive stars before they collapse. The improved detection rates could also clarify how red supergiants evolve in their final stages. With more precise mass measurements, researchers hope to address gaps in models of Type II-P supernovae, where the progenitor star’s fate remains poorly understood.

The findings highlight the potential of Euclid and CSST to expand progenitor star catalogues significantly. A larger dataset would allow for better statistical studies of supernova origins. Future work may refine dust temperature estimates and explore progenitors of other supernova types, further advancing the field.